Solar eclipse viewing in Adirondacks: Forecast predicts clear skies against odds

Eclipse enthusiasts and hikers warned of backcountry dangers in Adirondack Park as celestial event meets unpredictable April weather

By Zachary Matson

The forecast for Monday’s total solar eclipse is shaping up to be excellent in the Adirondacks, but an ill-timed Nor’easter is heightening concerns about the potentially dangerous conditions visitors will face in the backcountry.

All 25 forest rangers in the High Peaks and eastern Adirondack Park are scheduled to work Monday. Essex County has already declared a state of emergency in advance of expected large crowds. And the Wild Center in Tupper Lake is preparing for its largest gathering in its history. 

Despite climate trends suggesting only a 20% chance of clear skies this time of year, forecasters are growing increasingly confident that weather will be ideal for solar eclipse viewing across the swath of the Adirondacks in the path of totality —  the best view of the sun and moon in rare alignment. 

“Monday is looking like the pick of the days next week, with limited sky cover and decently warm temperatures,” said Matthew Clay, a forecaster in the National Weather Service’s Burlington, Vermont office. 

Forecasting models predict just a 10% chance of 50% cloud cover at the time of the eclipse on Monday afternoon, Clay said. 

High alert in the High Peaks: Forest rangers brace for crowds

That warm-up following shortly after a storm that dumped as much as 2 feet of snow in the high mountains, though, is near a worst-case scenario for the forest rangers and emergency managers charged with maintaining safety amid potentially unprecedented April crowds.

Forest Ranger Capitan Kevin Burns, who manages the two dozen rangers in Department of Environmental Conservation Region 5, said rangers were preparing for increased backcountry use and discouraging high-elevation hiking.

“The timing of the storm is not ideal,” Burns said in a Wednesday interview. “A very impressive event is coming on Monday. We could see a Fourth of July or Columbus Day event in the backcountry and it could be a handful for the rangers.”

Burns said rangers will start ramping up preventative educational efforts this weekend, trying to reach people at trailheads to caution about conditions and suggest alternative viewing spots. He said backcountry conditions will likely degrade as warm temperatures melt newly-fallen snow.

The annual mud season advisory against using trails above 2,500 feet, which are particularly sensitive this time of year, remains in place and so is a requirement that backcountry users have snowshoes when traveling snow on 8 inches or deeper. 

“[The eclipse] may bring people who have never been here before and don’t know what they will encounter… It is still winter conditions here in the High Peaks,” Burns said. “We recommend they view the eclipse event from low elevations or designated sites that towns have identified.”

Burns said rangers plan to enforce restrictions against overnight camping at trailheads. They will attempt to reach hikers before they set out into the woods for overnight stays this weekend, focusing on highly-visited trailheads along the Route 73 corridor. Volunteer search and rescue crews will also be on call, he said. 

Backcountry conditions are likely to deteriorate as temperatures warm over the weekend and into Monday, when highs could reach the 50s. Burns said that means dangerous high water, muddy conditions on lower trails, postholing at high elevations and potentially hypothermic conditions.

Traffic could complicate rescue operations and multiple rescues could spread rangers thin. Experts are also warning visitors about cold water temperatures and the dangers of canoeing or kayaking.

“The stream crossings can become treacherous at times,” Burns said. “There are times that rangers can’t help you because the water level is so high.”

Eclipse crowds forecast? Preparing for the unknown

This exact confluence of late-winter conditions and large crowds inundating the Adirondack mountains has been predicted for months. State and local officials have ramped up planning meetings to multiple times a week, and state police are establishing a command center in Ray Brook to coordinate among different agencies. 

The Essex County Board of Supervisors on Monday unanimously adopted a preemptive state of emergency declaration beginning Saturday. The declaration gives county leaders more authority to respond to the situation, including closing roads or bypassing standard procurement requirements. 

“We don’t know what is going to happen,” said Shaun Gillilland, chair of the board of supervisors and Willsboro town supervisor. “We have heard from state agencies that we are going to have thousands of visitors up here.”

Gillilland said short-term rentals and hotels are booked throughout the county. Tourism officials and other government officials have warned of similar scarcity of lodgings in the Adirondacks.

As state officials continued to warn of a large number of visitors and other counties in the path of totality adopted emergency declarations, Essex County officials viewed doing the same as prudent. Despite fears of hours-long gridlock, gasoline shortages and backcountry rescues, Gillilland said the draw to the Adirondacks is a net benefit to the region. 

“It is definitely a positive,” he said. “You don’t normally see a lot of people this year.”

The Wild Center sold out of 4,500 tickets it offered for people to view the eclipse from its 115-acre campus. The nearby Adirondack Sky Center & Observatory expects a substantial interest in its events.

Typically, the Wild Center is closed in April, but this week it has a busy slate of activities planned starting this weekend and lasting through the rare celestial event. 

“We are fully expecting to have the busiest day ever at the Wild Center on Monday,” said Nick Gunn, the center’s marketing director.

Top photo: Snow continued to fall in Lake Placid on Thursday. With an expected warm-up and clear skies by Monday’s solar eclipse, recent snow could melt into dangerous high water and sloppy trails. Photo by Chloe Bennett