Cornell study warns New York could lose 3 million residents by 2050 as North Country communities face steep population decline

By Ashley Soebroto 

The state’s population is bouncing back after almost half a million New Yorkers packed their bags and moved away amid the coronavirus pandemic. Since 2022, more than 100,000 people have moved into the Empire State — with even some cities benefiting from the rebound. But against the backdrop of that growth, Times Union research found that many communities across New York, especially upstate, are still experiencing serious population loss.

In the North Country, the town of Dannemora saw a population percentage decrease greater than 36%, from 4,898 to 3,115 people from 2010 to 2024, according to census data. On the western edge of the Finger Lakes, the town of Groveland saw a 34% decline over the same period, from 3,249 to 2,137 people. In central New York, the town of Georgetown saw a 33% drop from 974 to 648 residents.

A map the Times Union created showing the places with the greatest percentage of population losses since 2010 shows communities in every region of upstate impacted — a virtual Swiss cheese of some municipalities gaining people, while others are hollowing out.

Related Reading: Learn more about the funding challenges facing Adirondack communities in this recent Explorer article: A fair share: Grant programs fall short for the Adirondacks, officials say

Many communities experiencing population plummets are not seeing huge numbers of residents disappearing. For example, the village of Dannemora was first in the state for percentage of population loss — 39%. But the number of fewer people counted, 1,552, is less than half of the 3,447 people the city of Jamestown lost — which, raw numbers-wise, saw the greatest population decline in the state for the same time period.

But for the small towns and villages impacted, it still means huge shifts in life there — declining school enrollment, the closure of businesses and the eventual scaling back of available jobs, health care and other essential services.

Birth rate declines are impacting populations everywhere. And people leaving communities with fewer jobs and affordable housing is a trend that continues. But New York has other unique factors at play. Far-flung communities that arose around state prisons, like Dannemora, have been impacted by changes in the criminal justice system and the closure of beds (those incarcerated were once counted in New York, where they were held). In at least one case, extreme weather drove out residents.

This issue of shrinking communities is on the radar of some state legislators, including Sen. James Tedisco, whose district covers Saratoga County, Niskayuna and the city of Schenectady, which all have healthy population numbers. In 2023, Tedisco attempted to create a state committee to study why people are leaving New York.The bill never made it out of committee and Tedisco has reintroduced it during the current legislative session.

“(Declining population) doesn’t depict New York state as the Empire State,” Tedisco said. “It kind of looks like we’re fast becoming the empty state. That’s a real concern to me, and should be of concern to everybody.”

Last November, Cornell University population researchers issued projections that New York could lose up to nearly 3 million residents by 2050, sparking concerns of a “mass exodus.”

For some local officials, these population declines highlight a frustration and feeling of not getting enough support from the state.

“This side, north of Albany, doesn’t matter to most of the politicians and basically New York state,” said Marty Miller, town supervisor of Potsdam, where the population has declined by 1,523 residents since 2010. The loss coincides with SUNY Potsdam’s student population reducing by more than 40% between 2010 and 2023, which led to cuts in faculty and programs.

“But I really do think that Albany needs to get their head out of their ass, and they need to start looking up here,” he added.

On the flip side, some communities are growing across New York — from towns on Long Island, to suburbs outside Albany and Buffalo, to Orthodox Jewish communities north of New York City.

Take, for example, the affluent beach town of Southampton in Suffolk County, which saw its population rise by 24%, or 13,856 people, from 2010 to 2024.

Despite the stark difference in population trends, experts point to a variety of factors that can explain why some communities are flourishing, while others are shrinking.

RSVP TODAY

The Adirondacks are a big draw, attracting millions of visitors each year. However, small communities across the region struggle to maintain or replace the aging infrastructure used by both locals and tourists. While fully covering the high costs of projects is beyond rural communities’ abilities, they are often left behind when competing for state money for these critical projects.

Are you an elected official, town supervisor, or lover of precious Adirondack landscapes?

You won’t want to miss this panel discussion led by Explorer water reporter Zach Matson that highlights this important issue. We’ll talk about the challenges communities face and how the Adirondacks can secure the funding it needs for much-needed water infrastructure, dam repairs and other crucial initiatives. Local government and state leaders come together with Adirondack advocates for a chance to talk openly and frankly about how the state can help with funding essential projects in our region.

Event Details: Doors open at 8:30 a.m. with coffee and light refreshments; Program begins at 9:00 a.m.

Featured Panelists:

• Davina Thurston (St. Armand supervisor)
• Cathy Reusser (Elizabethtown supervisor)
• Beth Gilles (executive director of the Lake Champlain-Lake George Regional Planning Board)
• Jackie Bowen (conservation director of the Adirondack Council)
• Representative from Department of Environmental Conservation
• Representative from the Environmental Facilities Corporation

Photo at the top: Marty Miller, the town supervisor of Potsdam, sits at his desk at Town Hall. Potsdam’s population declined by 1,523 residents between 2010 and 2024. Courtesy of Marty Miller